Heat Pump Slowdown Threatens EU’s Climate Goals Without Stronger Policy Support

・Heat pump sales plummeted across Europe in early 2023.

・The EU’s goal of installing 60 million more units by 2030 is now at risk.

・Policy shifts, lower gas prices, and persistently high electricity costs are behind the decline.

・EHPA urges the EU to strengthen policies and correct energy price imbalances.

・The upcoming “EU Heat Pump Action Plan” is seen as critical for a market rebound.

A Sudden Market Drop Puts Europe’s Clean Heating Revolution at Risk

In early 2023, Europe saw a significant drop in heat pump sales, sparking serious concern from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA). The decline comes after a record-breaking year in 2022, putting the EU’s ambitious climate and energy independence goals at risk.

The EU aims to deploy over 60 million additional heat pumps by 2030 to decarbonize heating and cooling and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. However, current trends show a worrying slowdown. Italy experienced a staggering 34% drop in sales in the first half of 2023, compared to the same period in 2022. Finland and Poland also saw declines of 17% and 6% respectively, with projections indicating a potential 20–30% overall decrease.

This downturn has been driven by a cocktail of adverse factors: shifting government incentives, falling gas prices, persistently high electricity costs, and economic pressure on consumers due to inflation and interest rate hikes. As operating a heat pump becomes less financially attractive, consumer trust is eroding.

Thomas Nowak, Secretary General of EHPA, stated, “2022’s surge was powered by strong policy and momentum. But sudden changes in the policy environment and unfavorable electricity-to-gas price ratios have shaken end-user confidence. This is a serious threat to the heat pump sector—and delays Europe’s journey toward net zero and energy independence.”

EHPA urges the European Commission to swiftly implement its upcoming Heat Pump Action Plan. It should focus on boosting demand for clean heating solutions, ensuring affordability, and replicating supportive measures across member states. The Action Plan is expected to address key barriers such as electricity pricing, consumer awareness, fossil fuel subsidies, and the shortage of trained installers.

In June 2023, EHPA and 20 partner organizations submitted inputs to the EU Heat Pump Accelerator, a foundational document intended to guide these policy efforts. If implemented with clarity and urgency, it could mark a turning point for heat pump deployment across the continent.

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